Trump Cautions Iran About Significant Consequences if Quick Deal Isn’t Reached

President Donald Trump cautioned that he may soon resume strikes on Iran as part of his strategy to finalize a deal to end the conflict, following his recent announcement of a canceled US attack.

“I hope we don’t have to go to war, but we may need to deliver another significant blow,” Trump stated to reporters on Tuesday. When inquired about the timeline, he responded: “I’m talking about two or three days, perhaps Friday, Saturday, or Sunday. Maybe something early next week — a limited window.”

Trump’s comments have once again reignited discussions about the potential for renewed hostilities with Iran, which has thus far resisted his demands to dismantle the final parts of its nuclear program after weeks of strikes beginning in late February. Nonetheless, the president has repeatedly shown signs of intending — and then pulling back from — renewed military actions since the truce was established on April 8.

The conflict has led to a closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital route for oil and gas transportation, driving a spike in global energy prices and contributing to inflation. Yields on long-term US Treasury bonds have surged to their highest levels in nearly two decades due to worries about the broader economic implications stemming from the Middle East conflict.

In a Tuesday afternoon address, Vice President JD Vance offered a slightly more hopeful view on the negotiations, while also suggesting the possibility of renewed military strikes. “We believe we’ve made substantial progress, and the Iranians are seeking a deal,” he stated, adding that “option B” could involve resuming military operations.

“But that’s not the president’s preference,” he added. “And I don’t think that’s what the Iranians want either.”

Despite suffering considerable losses in senior leadership and military capability due to US and Israeli airstrikes, Iran’s government has remained steadfast, frustrating US officials by maintaining its grip over Hormuz, which has pushed fuel prices in the US to their highest in nearly four years.

On Monday, Trump revealed he postponed a planned attack on Iran that was set for Tuesday at the behest of Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates. Previously, the president has pointed to requests from allies and partners, including mediator Pakistan, as factors in his shifts in Iran policy.

Brent crude oil prices fell about 1% on Tuesday, trading above $110 per barrel following Trump’s announcements late Monday. However, prices have still risen by more than 50% since the conflict began with the US-Israeli strikes on Iran, leaving traders vigilant regarding the possibility of renewed hostilities.

Shipments through Hormuz have once again decreased, though traders are closely watching whether the NATO alliance will step in to ensure safe passage for vessels if the waterway remains closed by early July.

While Trump’s remarks typically sway financial markets regarding Iran, market analysts have observed that this influence appears to be waning as the president frequently issues threats without following through.

“These verbal assertions from Trump used to trigger substantial bearish reactions in prices, but their impact seems to be diminishing now, unless accompanied by action,” noted Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at SEB AB. “From our observations, there has been no real progress in the negotiations between the US and Iran, with both sides firmly sticking to their initial demands.”

The fragility of the truce was underscored on Sunday when a drone struck the UAE’s Barakah nuclear energy facility, igniting a fire and necessitating the deployment of emergency generators.

The United Nations’ nuclear watchdog announced late Monday that normal operations at Barakah have resumed, alleviating safety concerns regarding the largest atomic facility in the Middle East.

Tehran has indicated it may retaliate against its Gulf neighbors if the US resumes its military actions.

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