Templegate’s 12-1 Arc de Triomphe Pick, Top 1-2-3 Predictions, and In-Depth Runner Analysis for the Longchamp Showdown
While the Melbourne Cup captures the heart of a nation, the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe may very well be the event that captures the enthusiasm of an entire continent.
A nod also goes to Japan!
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Credit: AFP
While Japan has not yet secured victory in this prestigious Group 1 race at Longchamp, they are fielding an admirable trio this year.
Nonetheless, French competitors are well-represented, alongside formidable runners from Britain and Ireland.
The draw has concluded, final preparations are in place, and it’s now time for Templegate to assist you in identifying a winner.
Below, he assesses each horse and provides ratings from one to five stars—one being the least favorable and five the most.
He discloses his top selection for the 3.05pm race and offers a 1-2-3 prediction at the conclusion.
Additionally, you can review his picks for all significant races occurring in the French capital.
Templegate’s Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe runner-by-runner analysis
GIAVELLOTTO 2
There’s much to achieve. Has stamina and performs on a variety of surfaces, but needs to step up in this competitive field.
Expected to run his usual solid race, though a tough challenge is on the horizon.
WHITE BIRCH 2
WHITE out. Claimed a Group 1 victory at The Curragh last year, but form has declined this season.
This distance suits him, but softer ground would be preferable. Appears vulnerable against stronger adversaries.
ARROW EAGLE 1
BALD Eagle. Made progress early this season with wins in France but stumbled in the Prix Foy last time.
Although he maintains this distance, he appears somewhat short of this quality.
SOSIE 4
SO good. A French Group 1 standout with victories in the Prix Ganay and Ispahan, finishing closely behind in the Prix Foy.
Handles all conditions well, the distance is beneficial, and has good prospects of replicating last year’s fourth-place finish.
LOS ANGELES 2
LOS cause. Ballydoyle colt with Group 1 victories at Curragh this year and performed well last year.
Seems to have declined recently and is likely restricted to a placing at best.
BYZANTINE DREAM 5
A DREAM consummated. Japanese contender in top form following a hard-fought win in the Prix Foy.
Displays stamina and speed, performs admirably on any ground, and seems ready to make a significant impact despite a suboptimal draw.
QUISISANA 3
QUIS has solutions. An improving mare on a five-win streak following a decisive triumph in the Prix Jean Romanet recently.
Versatile with ground conditions and stays well at 12f, but faces a significant class jump today. An outsider who could perform admirably without taking the win.
KALPANA 3
HOT Pan. A consistent filly with a commendable second place in the King George, proven over 12f, and adept on all surfaces.
Needs to recover from a disappointing performance prior but shouldn’t be dismissed for an each-way bet.
AVENTURE 4
A winning TURE. Last year’s Arc runner-up and a multiple Group winner this season, most recently taking the Vermeille.
Proven here, stays strongly, remains reliable, and is likely to produce another commendable performance.
DARYZ 3
DAR may shine. An up-and-coming colt with an undefeated spring and a close second in a recent Group 3.
Born for success at this distance, still improving, but this might be a year too soon.
LEFFARD 3
ARD to overlook. Grand Prix de Paris winner, and better than his sixth place in the Prix Niel suggests.
Strong at this distance and adaptable to conditions. Could sneak into contention with further improvement.
CUALIFICAR 4
CAR powers ahead. Claimed the Prix Niel recently with a solid performance over this trip.
Lightly raced and still developing, a major French contender if delivering another career-best under Buick’s stewardship.
HOTAZHELL 1
COLD on Hot. Last year’s Futurity Trophy winner facing a difficult debut over 1m4f.
Respected connections though it would be surprising if he’s able to contend at this level.
CROIX DU NORD 4
NORD star. Japanese Derby champion over this distance, narrowly defeating Daryz last time.
This distance suits him better, and he’s adaptable to ground conditions. Solid form could bring him close, but stall 17 raises concerns.
ALOHI ALII 2
ALII untested. Impressive Group 2 winner at Deauville over 1m2f last time.
Progressing but untested beyond that distance. Pedigree suggests potential excellence, although the Arc poses a significant challenge.
MINNIE HAUK 4
HAUK a standout. Remarkable filly unbeaten this year, with wins in the Epsom, Irish, and Yorkshire Oaks.
Handles this distance capably, adept in various ground conditions, and continues to gain strength. A formidable competitor from a favorable draw with a weight edge over male opponents.
GEZORA 3
GE whizz. French Oaks winner who finished a strong second in the Vermeille recently behind Aventure.
Proven at this distance, adaptable to any ground. Needs to elevate her game but has a chance at placing.
Templegate’s Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe tip and 1-2-3 prediction
BYZANTINE DREAM might finally fulfill Japan’s Arc aspirations.
This racing-enthusiastic nation has not yet secured victory in Europe’s premier event, but this four-year-old is demonstrating potential following a determined victory in the Prix Foy.
He adapts to various ground conditions and connections wisely retained Oisin Murphy, which could prove essential.
While his draw may not be favorable, winning from an outer position is feasible.
Furthermore, Minnie Hauk, supported by the Ballydoyle giants and unbeaten this season with an Oaks hat-trick, presents a serious challenge due to her weight advantage.
Aventure, last year’s runner-up, returns in top form after a Vermeille victory and generally excels here.
Japan also has hope with Croix Du Nord, who boasts strong domestic form and navigated the track adeptly when edging out a solid each-way contender, Daryz.
Sosie might also present value while Cualificar stands as a promising challenger from esteemed trainer Andre Fabre.
1st Byzantine Dream
2nd Minnie Hauk
3rd Aventure
Templegate’s Longchamp recommendations
TAMFANA seems ready to regain form in the Group 1 Prix De L’Opera (3.50).
Trainer David Menuisier has been patient with this four-year-old, who previously won the Sun Chariot in this grade last year.
She concluded her three-year-old season strongly with a solid third in the QEII Stakes and appeared poised for another successful year.
Things haven’t unfolded as expected; following a promising second in the Sandown Mile, she did not meet expectations in the Lockinge and hasn’t raced since that May outing.
Now returning at 1m2f, a distance where she placed second in the French Oaks on her sole attempt, and some ground cut would be advantageous.
If she regains her prime form, she will vie closely with main rival See The Fire, who disappointed at York last time.
MORE THUNDER looks poised for a Group 1 breakthrough in the Foret (4.25).
William Haggas’ colt has consistently appeared above the handicap ranks, showcasing his potential with a smooth Group 2 victory at Newbury in August after a Bunbury Cup success.
He has been resting since that impressive performance, making this an opportune moment at the highest level.
He holds a favorable draw and excels at this 7f distance.
Earlier on the card, JM JUNGLE stands as a solid each-way bet in the L’Abbaye (1.50).
The Quinns won this race two years ago and have another promising opportunity with this five-year-old, who has enjoyed a successful season.
He triumphed in the Dash at Epsom on Derby day and performed admirably in competitive fields at York.
He returned to winning form by capturing the King George at Goodwood and came close to that level again with a narrow miss in the Nunthorpe last time.
He adapts well to various ground conditions and should be competitive.
While local winners may be few on Arc day, NIGHTTIME (1.15) has a solid chance for Christopher Head.
He has been steadily improving, following a Listed victory at Deauville with a commendable Group 3 win over this course and distance last month.
With minimal mileage on his clock, he just needs a bit more to surpass O’Brien hopeful Puerto Rico and likely favorite Rayif in Aga Khan colors.
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