The Impact of Foot-and-Mouth Disease on Supply Chains: Extending Beyond Agricultural Issues

The recent outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in South Africa has escalated beyond being merely an animal health issue. Its ramifications are reverberating through the entire livestock supply chain, impacting farms, abattoirs, cold storage facilities, transporters, exporters, and international markets.

The extent of the disruption is considerable. According to a January 2026 report from the Bureau for Food and Agricultural Policy, the crisis is projected to cost the South African livestock sector R13.1 billion over five years, which encompasses R11.3 billion in lost production and R1.8 billion in forfeited export revenue.

In February 2026, the government officially declared FMD a national disaster. While much attention has rightfully been given to animal health, the economic impacts reveal a further issue: the fragility of supply chains that transport livestock and meat from producers to consumers.

From farm disruption to supply chain breakdown

When viewed through a lens other than animal health, the government’s response aligns with traditional supply chain management principles. Movement restrictions or export market closures triggered by an outbreak can swiftly cause upheaval throughout the entire supply chain.

Livestock may not move as intended, abattoirs may experience reduced throughput, finished meat products may lack destinations, and cold storage facilities can transform from export links to mere holding areas.

Read:
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The effects are already apparent in export numbers. Beef exports have reportedly declined by 26% year over year, with certain categories of bovine meat exports plummeting by as much as 56.6% by mid-2026.

Exports to various Middle Eastern markets have reportedly dropped by 65% to 95%. For companies involved at any point in the supply chain, this change introduces a risk profile that is distinctly different from that of a conventional production interruption.

The issue transcends merely the production of meat; it encompasses the ability to transport, certify, store, and ultimately sell it in the target market.

Ensuring market access

The international reaction has underlined the critical nature of trade compliance and certification. Some markets have barred South African beef, while others have kept their doors open under updated certification protocols.

Countries like China, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Namibia, and the UK have enforced restrictions on South African beef since January 2025, whereas markets such as the UAE, Jordan, Hong Kong, and Kuwait continue to accept goods under adjusted terms.

Access to these markets necessitates coordination among veterinary authorities, exporters, regulators, and trade-compliance experts.

For exporters, certification is not merely a bureaucratic step. It is an integral part of the supply chain. Delayed documentation can hold up shipments even when the product is ready for transportation.

This situation creates ripple effects impacting transport logistics, inventory management, cold storage, production scheduling, and customer relations.

Importance of traceability

One of the long-term challenges ahead is maintaining traceability. Currently, South Africa’s livestock traceability system is largely voluntary, with the Red Meat Industry Services playing a significant role.

The lack of a comprehensive mandatory national system complicates efforts to quickly ascertain the movements of animals and identify sections of the supply chain that may have been compromised.

During an outbreak, this information is vital. Effective traceability aids authorities in identifying affected animals, isolating potentially exposed groups, and limiting restrictions to only those areas or supply chains that pose a genuine risk.

Without sufficiently detailed movement data, responses may be unnecessarily broad and disruptive.

Read: FMD in SA: How a tracking system would control outbreaks

The FMD situation thus underscores a crucial supply chain principle: visibility is a form of risk management. Understanding the movements of animals, the facilities they have traversed, and the final destinations of their products can significantly influence the speed at which a disruption is mitigated.

A cross-disciplinary supply chain issue

The insights gained from the FMD crisis extend well beyond agriculture. Producers require systems that enhance traceability and risk management. Abattoirs and processors must adapt to fluctuating throughput and market demands.

Cold chain operators need to adjust to changing inventory dynamics. Exporters have to navigate certification and market-access challenges, while retailers and other buyers need to have contingency plans ready when traditional sources are unavailable.

These challenges increasingly demand a multidisciplinary approach involving agriculture, logistics, technology, regulation, international trade, and risk management.

They also highlight the necessity for supply chain professionals to have expertise beyond just transportation and warehousing. They must comprehend how disruptions in one segment of a network can cascade throughout the entire system.

Read: ‘Consequences are dire’ if new agriculture minister doesn’t address FMD bottlenecks

For businesses in South Africa, the FMD crisis serves as a clear illustration of why the management of supply chain risks and resilience is now viewed as a strategic imperative rather than just an operational concern.

Professionals working across agriculture, logistics, retail, manufacturing, and international trade must increasingly possess the skills to analyze intricate supply networks, recognize regulatory and market risks, and make informed decisions when standard supply routes are disrupted.

This is an area where specialized education can contribute. IMM Graduate School offers supply chain qualifications that cover topics such as supply chain management, international trade, risk management, analytics, and strategic decision-making. Some of these qualifications are accredited by the Chartered Institute of Logistics and Transport International.

The FMD crisis makes it clear that building supply chain resilience cannot happen only when a crisis is imminent. Factors like traceability, contingency planning, market diversification, cold chain capacity, and effective information channels must be established before any disruption occurs.

Ernst van Biljon is the Dean of Research at IMM Graduate School.

Read:
Private sector warns SA’s foot-and-mouth plan risks collapse
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