Researchers Link Major Carbon Emitters to Rising Heat Wave Intensities

A large number of the over 200 heat waves recorded worldwide this century can be attributed to human-induced climate change. A recent study, released Wednesday in the journal Nature, links much of this escalating hot weather to emissions from the globe’s leading fossil fuel and cement companies.

This research serves as the first extensive assessment of climate change’s historical effects on a wide range of heat waves. The scientists discovered that emissions from the top 180 carbon emitters accounted for nearly half of the increased intensity of heat waves since the preindustrial era. Notably, 14 major carbon emitters, such as Exxon Mobil Corp, Saudi Aramco, and Gazprom PJSC, have contributed to over 50 heat waves that would likely have been nearly impossible without their impact.

In contrast to prior studies that focused primarily on emissions by regions or nations, this analysis emphasizes significant carbon contributors, according to Yann Quilcaille, the lead author of the study and a postdoctoral researcher at ETH Zurich.

“This research signifies a pivotal step towards holding major emitters accountable,” states Friederike Otto, a climate science professor at Imperial College London, who was not involved in the study.

Otto is a co-founder of World Weather Attribution, a scientific collective known for analyzing extreme weather events, an approach embraced by the authors of this current research. These findings come amidst a growing wave of climate lawsuits against polluters, where citizens and communities have often faced hurdles in substantiating their claims in court.

In an effort to bridge this knowledge gap, scientists are intensifying their endeavors to use climate attribution research to connect a wider range of extreme weather events to specific sources. Earlier this year, another study in Nature indicated that both Saudi Aramco and Gazprom were accountable for approximately $2 trillion in lost global economic growth resulting from extreme heat.

Saudi Aramco declined to comment, and neither Gazprom nor Exxon Mobil has addressed requests for remarks.

A growing body of scientific evidence is “opening the door to hold fossil fuel companies accountable” for the harm caused to communities and ecosystems globally, Otto noted.

In an essay accompanying the study in Nature, Karsten Haustein, a climate scientist from Leipzig University not associated with the research, underscored that it “serves as a reminder that denial and anti-science rhetoric will not erase climate liability nor alleviate the escalating dangers posed by heat waves worldwide.”

While heat waves are still considered natural events, greenhouse gas emissions are intensifying their frequency and severity.

The cumulative heat over time increases wildfires, droughts, hurricanes, and rainfall. Higher temperatures can also weaken infrastructure, disrupt productivity, and pose health risks to populations. In 2022 alone, heat waves were responsible for over 60,000 premature deaths across Europe.

To determine how climate change affects the frequency and intensity of heat waves, the study’s authors analyzed 213 heat waves from 2000 to 2023 that resulted in significant social and economic disruptions. Employing methods similar to those utilized by WWA in their event analyses, the researchers utilized computer models to simulate how these heat waves would have unfolded in a preindustrial climate compared to current conditions.

The results indicate that global warming has increased the likelihood and intensity of heat waves, a trend that has worsened over time. Specifically, the probability of heat waves surged 20-fold between 2000 and 2009 compared to the preindustrial period from 1850 to 1900, and jumped to 200 times more likely between 2010 and 2019.

The team also performed climate modeling, excluding the emissions of individual carbon majors to assess the impact of each company on global average temperatures. By gauging the contributions of these carbon majors to global warming and its effects on heat waves, researchers quantified each major’s influence on the 213 heat waves listed in a key international database. For instance, fifty-five heat waves were found to be at least 10,000 times more probable due to climate change, with emitters from the former Soviet Union contributing to the increased likelihood of 53 of those heat waves.

The more emissions a corporation produces, the larger its contribution to the exacerbation of heat waves.

Even the smallest major emitter among the 180, Russian coal producer Elgaugol OAO, is linked to 16 heat waves that would have been almost impossible in a preindustrial climate, according to the study’s findings. Elgaugol has not responded to inquiries via email.

While this may sound serious, the actual climate damage caused by these carbon majors could be even more profound. As many heat waves in regions of the Global South—such as Africa and Latin America—are underreported and missing from the database, “the study likely underestimates the true extent of these events, and the actual consequences are probably much greater,” Otto remarked.

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